Council On Foreign Relations
Interviewee:
Robert J. Barnett, Director of the Modern Tibetan Studies Program, Columbia University
Interviewer:
Deborah Jerome, Deputy Editor
February 17, 2010

Robert Barnett President Barack Obama’s scheduled meeting with the Dalai Lama this week drew harsh criticism from China, as did news of a $6 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. The meeting occurs at a time when China is both more confident on the global stage and more concerned about a restive Tibet and other domestic issues, says Tibet expert Robert Barnett of Columbia University. “Both sides will want to avoid any serious rupture,” says Barnett, but a better understanding of each other’s positions would help.

All American presidents since 1990 have met with the Dalai Lama, yet President Obama’s scheduled meeting Thursday has drawn a sharp warning from China that the visit will undermine U.S.-China relations. Is China more irritated about this visit than it has been previously?

There is certainly a higher level of angry rhetoric from Beijing. There was even a possible threat (People’sDaily) on February 3, when Zhu Weiqun, a party official at vice-ministerial level, said that a U.S. meeting with the Dalai Lama “would be both irrational and harmful, [and] if a country decides to do so, we will take necessary measures to help them realize this.”

But in fact, behind the scenes, Beijing was far more disturbed by the previous presidential meeting, President George W. Bush’s presentation of the Congressional Gold Medal to the Dalai Lama in October 2007–because that was the first and only time a U.S. president and the Tibetan leader had met in public.

So for Chinese diplomats, the real objective for the last six months or so has been not to stop the meeting, which their experts knew was impossible, but to get it to be private. That’s been achieved, because the meeting will take place in a private room, the White House Map Room. But that’s an obscure issue of protocol that, as the White House knows, makes a lot of difference to Beijing officials but none to American or Tibetan perceptions of the meeting. For China, the symbolic details matter, but for Tibetans in Tibet, it’s only whether the two people meet that is meaningful.

But there are other factors behind the angry rhetoric. China changed its Tibet policy because of its shock at the public meeting with President Bush in 2007. It upgraded Tibet to a “core interest” and began much more aggressive efforts to stop foreign meetings with the Dalai Lama.    more …

World Politics Review
By: David Axe
Feb 17, 2010

The last two weeks have seen a mixed message from Beijing regarding U.S.-Chinese military ties. The ambiguous signals are indicative of China’s continuing fixation on Taiwan and its uncertainty regarding its place among world powers.

In January, the U.S. moved forward on a long-delayed, $6.4 billion arms deal for Taiwan that includes assault helicopters, surface-to-air missiles and mine-hunting vessels. The deal had initially been approved by the Bush administration in 2008, but the new administration under President Barack Obama was slow to issue the individual contracts necessary to provide the weapons.

Under the terms of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. is required to provide for the self-defense of the island, which neither China nor the U.S. officially recognizes as an independent country. Taiwan and China split in 1949 following a bloody civil war.

Beijing has vowed to reunite China and Taiwan, by force if necessary. In 1996, the U.S. Navy sailed two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait in reaction to Chinese threats against the island. Since then, China has spent billions of dollars buying submarines and anti-ship missiles meant to counter American carriers. But Chinese investment has not, as yet, produced a military capable of conquering Taiwan.

Citing the arms deal’s “serious harm and impacts on Sino-U.S. military relations,” Beijing announced it would cancel planned visits between U.S. and Chinese forces. This is China’s standard reaction to any U.S. military cooperation with Taiwan.

But Beijing’s move to sever military ties failed to halt joint U.S.-Chinese security patrols in earthquake-ravaged Haiti. And Beijing said it would allow the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz to visit Hong Kong this week.

The mixed message is indicative of China’s internal confusion regarding its place in the world, according to security experts interviewed by World Politics Review. The experts were unanimous in describing Taiwan as Beijing’s overwhelming strategic priority. But they said the Taiwan fixation is complicated by China’s parallel efforts to become an otherwise responsible member of the regional security framework for Asia.     more …

The New York Times
By MARTIN JACQUES
Published: February 16, 2010

LONDON — The spats between the United States and China appear to be getting more numerous and more serious.

The Chinese strongly objected to Washington’s latest arms deal with Taiwan. President Obama accused the Chinese of currency manipulation, while at Davos, Larry Summers, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, made an oblique attack on China by referring to mercantilist policies. The disagreement between China and the United States at the Copenhagen climate summit in December has continued to reverberate.

Then there was the spat over Google’s claims that cyber attacks against the company had originated in China. The U.S. is increasingly critical of China’s opposition to sanctions against Iran. Now Beijing is fuming over the meeting this week between Mr. Obama and the Dalai Lama.

For the most part, however, the issues of contention are not new. The Chinese reaction to the Taiwan arms deal was entirely predictable, the only novelty being a threat of sanctions against the firms involved. Beijing’s response to the Dalai Lama meeting in Washington is equally predictable.

Mr. Obama’s statement about currency manipulation and the comments by Mr. Summers about mercantilism are a little different. True, they are not entirely new — the Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, accused the Chinese of currency manipulation a year ago. But since then, the U.S. administration had until now chosen to be more discreet.

Google and climate change are relatively new disputes. But we should not be surprised by them. China’s rise means that it is now involved in areas of the world and on issues where previously it had little or no stake. As China becomes a global power it is bound to come into conflict with the United States on a number of subjects.    more …

BBC News
By Chris Hogg
BBC News, Shanghai

One of the richest private entrepreneurs in China is to stand trial accused of bribery, insider trading and illegal business dealings.

The confirmation of the indictment laid against Huang Guangyu on Friday has come from state media.

Mr Huang founded Gome, China’s largest chain of electronics stores.

He was arrested on suspicion of share manipulation in November 2008, a month after he had been labelled China’s richest man.

He was placed under investigation and two months later, resigned as the director and chairman of the chain of 1,200 electronics stores he had built up from nothing.

He has been held in detention ever since.

Suspicion

The charges now laid against him are more wide ranging than those detailed at the start of the investigation.

The indictment said accomplices will join him on trial in Beijing, without naming them.

Two senior police officials have been accused of bribery in connection with the case.

The trial will be watched closely by the business community in Beijing. It will be the highest profile case yet involving a private entrepreneur in China.     more …

The New York Times
Editorial

Relations between the United States and China have turned chilly in recent months as the two countries wrangle over Taiwan, Tibet, Iran and China’s continued manipulation of its currency.

President Obama is right to press Beijing to behave more responsibly — toward its own people and internationally. China is certainly pushing its sense of grievance too far and underestimating the fear and resentment its growing power is provoking in Asia and the West.

There is little hope of progress — on the global economy, global warming or Iran’s nuclear ambitions — unless Washington and Beijing work harder to manage their differences.

President Obama’s decision last month to sell Taiwan $6.4 billion in helicopters, Patriot missiles and other defensive items elicited a particularly harsh reaction: Beijing has publicly threatened to punish American arms companies that sell to Taiwan, presumably by cutting off access to China’s huge market.

The sales could not have been a surprise to China’s leadership. Mr. Obama told President Hu Jintao of his intentions at their summit in November in Beijing. The arms were part of a package approved by former President George W. Bush, and Mr. Obama left out the most controversial items: F-16 jets and diesel submarines.

Rather than encouraging Taiwan’s independence, as Beijing claims, the arms sales will give Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, the confidence to continue his efforts to improve relations with the mainland. It is absurd for China to think that any Taiwanese leader would not want to bolster his country’s defenses when Beijing is modernizing its arsenal and stationing more than 1,000 missiles across the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing’s threat to punish American companies is a dangerous game, especially at a time when criticism is rampant — around the world and on Capitol Hill — about China’s unfair trade practices.    more …

Reuters
Chris Buckley
BEIJING
Credit: Reuters/Joe Chan

Members of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force Aviation stand at attention during a training session at the 60th National Day Parade Village in the outskirts of Beijing, September 15, 2009. REUTERS/Joe Chan

BEIJING (Reuters) – Senior Chinese military officers have proposed that their country boost defense spending, adjust PLA deployments, and possibly sell some U.S. bonds to punish Washington for its latest round of arms sales to Taiwan.

World

The calls for broad retaliation over the planned U.S. weapons sales to the disputed island came from officers at China’s National Defence University and Academy of Military Sciences, interviewed by Outlook Weekly, a Chinese-language magazine published by the official Xinhua news agency.

The interviews with Major Generals Zhu Chenghu and Luo Yuan and Senior Colonel Ke Chunqiao appeared in the issue published on Monday.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plays no role in setting policy for China’s foreign exchange holdings. Officials in charge of that area have given no sign of any moves to sell U.S. Treasury bonds over the weapons sales, a move that could alarm markets and damage the value of China’s own holdings.

While far from representing fixed government policy, the open demands for retaliation by the PLA officers underscored the domestic pressures on Beijing to deliver on its threats to punish the Obama administration over the arms sales.

“Our retaliation should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics, military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms and root cause of this disease,” said Luo Yuan, a researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences.

“Just like two people rowing a boat, if the United States first throws the strokes into chaos, then so must we.”

Luo said Beijing could “attack by oblique means and stealthy feints” to make its point in Washington.

“For example, we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds,” Luo said.

The warnings from the PLA come after weeks of strains between Washington and Beijing, who have also been at odds over Internet controls and hacking, trade and currency quarrels, and President Barack Obama’s planned meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader reviled by China as a “separatist.”

MILITARY SPENDING BOOST

Chinese has blasted the United States over the planned $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan unveiled in late January, saying it will sanction U.S. firms that sell weapons to the self-ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province of China.

China is likely to unveil its official military budget for 2010 next month, when the Communist Party-controlled national parliament meets for its annual session.    more …

Reuters
Feb 5, 2010

MUNICH (Reuters) – China is indignant about new U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and its opposition to them is “very reasonable,” Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said on Friday.

China has said it will impose unspecified sanctions on U.S. firms selling weapons to Taiwan in retaliation for the U.S. announcement that it planned to sell $6.4 billion of arms to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province.

“The Chinese government and people feel indignant about this,” Yang told a security conference in Germany. “I do hope the U.S. will change its behavior … and will stop arms sales to Taiwan.”

“What China has done is very reasonable and what any dignified people would do,” he added.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since 1949, when Mao Zedong’s communist forces won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT fled to the island.

China has threatened to attack if Taiwan tries to formalize its de facto independence.    more …

Reuters
Feb 4, 2010
Chris Buckley – Analysis
BEIJING

BEIJING (Reuters) – “Ride on a tiger and it’s hard to climb down,” goes a Chinese saying that is proving apt for Beijing’s quarrels with Washington this year, when swollen ambitions at home are driving China on a harder tack abroad.

Barack Obama  |  China  |  COP15

China’s outrage over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and President Barack Obama’s planned meeting with the Dalai Lama has shown that, in the wake of the global financial crisis, Beijing is growing pushier in public.

In past decades, a poorer, more cautious China greeted U.S. weapons sales to the disputed island with angry words and little else.

Not now, as China enters the Year of the Tiger in its traditional lunar calendar cycle of talismanic animals.

The Obama administration last week announced plans to ship $6.4 billion of missiles, helicopters and weapons control systems to the self-ruled island Beijing calls its own. China threatened to downgrade cooperation with Washington and for the first time sanction companies involved in such sales.

Beijing this week also condemned Obama’s plan to meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader reviled by China.

China’s loud ire adds to signs the country is becoming surer about throwing around its political weight, growing along with an economy soon likely to whir past Japan’s as the world’s second biggest, though it will still trail far behind the United States.

Behind this assertiveness are domestic pressures likely to make it harder work for China’s leaders to cool disputes with Washington and other Western capitals.

“There is this paradox of increasing confidence externally and lack of confidence domestically,” said Susan Shirk, a professor specializing in Chinese foreign policy at the University of California, San Diego.

“There’s also what I consider a serious misperception of the country’s economic strength and how that translates in power.”    more ….

BBC World Service
February 1, 2010
By Rob Young

China has threatened to sanction firms involved in a US-approved $6.4bn (£4bn) weapons deal with Taiwan.  That would include US aerospace giant Boeing, which dominates China’s airline market ahead of main rival Airbus.

Boeing subsidiary McDonnell Douglas is delivering missiles worth $37m to Taiwan, the US government has said.
By comparison, one Boeing commercial airliner costs $50m or more. Boeing said it has not had any notice of  sanctions and declined to comment.

If there is an embargo, it would hit Boeing very, very badly  Tom Ballantyne, chief correspondent for Orient Aviation Magazine.

“This is a government-to-government issue,” Boeing China said in a statement.  “We are not in the position to comment or speculate on this matter.”

Professor Wu Xinbo, at the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said “this is the first time the government has issued such an announcement, and I think they are very serious”.

Tom Ballantyne, chief correspondent for Orient Aviation Magazine said “it could be horrifying news for Boeing”.   “If there is an embargo, it would hit Boeing very, very badly,” he said.

Monday’s edition of the state-run China Daily newspaper quoted Ye Hailin, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.  He said companies profiting from defence deals with Taiwan would need to pay a price.  “You cannot just make money from both Taiwan and the mainland,” said Mr Ye.

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan.     more …

BBC News
January 30, 2009

The US has defended a proposed weapons sale to Taiwan following a furious response from China.

The US State Department said on Saturday that the sale contributed to “security and stability” between Taiwan and China, Reuters reported.

Beijing announced a series of moves against the US in retaliation for the proposed $6.4bn (£4bn) sale.

Ties between the two countries are already strained by rows over trade and internet censorship.

ANALYSIS
Damian Grammaticas
Damian Grammaticas, BBC News, Beijing

You would expect China to react angrily to any proposed arms sale to Taiwan, but this time it seems to be going further than before.

Suspending military exchanges is a classic reply from Beijing and it may not even concern the US too much.

China’s threat to impose sanctions on US firms supplying arms to Taiwan is interesting if perplexing.

It’s unclear what “sanctions” would involve in practice, since US firms aren’t allowed to sell arms to China

China’s threat to withdraw co-operation on key international and regional issues is the most serious one. Here China can make life difficult for Washington.

It can complicate US attempts to deal with nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea, it can refuse to help in currency and trade issues.

But what is China trying to achieve by sounding so furious? Maybe Beijing’s real aim is to try to deter America from future arms sales – for example the fighter jets and submarines which Taiwan really wants.

“Such sales contribute to maintaining security and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” said US State Department spokeswoman Laura Tischler, quoted by Reuters.

The US is the leading arms supplier to Taiwan and has a treaty obligation to provide it with defensive arms.     more …