Asia Times
Dec 15, 2009
By Benjamin A Shobert

Several years ago, while attending a conference on United States-China business relations, I heard a well-respected leader in the field finish his presentation and take questions from the audience. Perhaps the most interesting question was also the simplest: “What could happen in the United States that would shift our relationship with China?” With only the slightest of pauses, his answer was “a long and protracted recession in the US”.

The exchange was certainly interesting that particular moment, when the idea of such an event seemed distant and easy to trivialize. Today, in the midst of precisely that situation, his comments are difficult to ignore.

The recent release of the annual 2009 congressional report from
the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), the product of a congressional committee long known for its suspicious view of China’s modernization and military growth, reinforces the idea that US-China relations are vulnerable to any number of things, but the state of the US economy remains the predominant threat. Many of the committee’s comments are not surprising, especially for those who have followed the growth of its role in policymaking over the past several years. Ongoing concerns over Taiwan echo throughout the report, while at the same time acknowledging the small gains that have transpired in 2009 regarding travel restrictions between China and Taiwan.

Similarly, the committee continues to push for greater transparency from the Chinese government regarding its objectives for the burgeoning military budgets coming from Beijing. Perhaps because 2009 was a year with its share of economic conflict, the most recent USCC report does a remarkably good job at casting a more balanced light on the growth of the Chinese military, and its potential to contribute to military conflict. The report goes so far as to say that ” … the expansion of China’s military and security activities abroad are more evolutionary than revolutionary in nature. Although the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is operating more frequently abroad, it should not yet be considered a global military or a military with global reach.”

Even more surprising was the report’s contention that “The Chinese military’s more international orientation is not a fundamentally negative development. A more activist PLA could in some circumstances provide a ‘public good’ by contributing more to global stability.” Given the many criticisms the report usually has for China, these points suggest that even the most hawkish forces in Washington are being forced to recognize that they will have to co-exist with Chinese power, and that doing so need not be detrimental to peace or prosperity.    more ….